Rain forecast and El Niño: what to expect in November and December
3 min readPlayaMagma
INAMHI has a heavy-rain warning in place for the coast, and the ERFEN committee expects a very strong or extraordinary El Niño peaking between November and December. Here is what it means for traveling to Ayampe.
INAMHI's current warning
Ecuador's National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (INAMHI) issued Weather Warning No. 86, in force from 10:00 on Wednesday, November 4 to 10:00 on Saturday, November 7, 2026. It forecasts heavy to intense rain across the coast, including Manabí and Santa Elena, and said it would consider a new warning on November 7 if the rain continues.
What the ERFEN committee says
- After its November 5 meeting, Ecuador's national El Niño committee (ERFEN) warned that the 2026-2027 event could reach very strong or extraordinary intensity, comparable to 1982-1983 and 1997-1998. It noted this is not yet a final classification.
- Warming in the central Pacific could peak between the rest of November and December 2026.
- Above-normal rainfall is expected on the coast in November, and Ecuador's El Niño index remains active.
What it means for Ayampe and Puerto López
Expect more days of heavy rain in the coming weeks, with rivers and streams rising as they did on October 31 and November 4. That is why, while the season lasts, some bookings may be cancelled for safety. If that happens to yours, we refund the full amount.
Sources
- TC Televisión · November 3, 2026 — Inamhi advierte lluvias fuertes y tormentas en varias provincias hasta el 7 de noviembre
- Metro Ecuador · November 6, 2026 — Ecuador podría enfrentar un fenómeno de El Niño extraordinario, comparable al de 1982 y 1997
- INAMHI — Monitoreo del Fenómeno de El Niño
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